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Beware of “rookie”: There is also cruel competition within this alliance



There has never been a company as special as a rookie. It is more like an association, but it is indeed an independent commercial enterprise; Cainiao can get the data of various express companies, improve the efficiency of the entire industry, and escort Ali e-commerce. Express delivery companies are willing to provide data without clear returns, just to keep e-commerce orders that may be lost and gain an advantage over other companies in Tongda.

For the rookie, Tongda companies are competing and cooperating with them, and there is cruel competition among express companies within the Tongda system and within this alliance.

At the same time, business flow determines logistics, and logistics chokes the throat of business flow. Coupled with the extremely unequal status and benefit “distribution” between the two parties, there is bound to be a conflict between the two.

Due to the unequal relationship, the Tongda system actually has inner helplessness, secretly fighting against each other and the rookie.

Beware of "rookie": There is also cruel competition within this alliance 1

Make rules, “referee” rookie

Now it is difficult to define whether the rookie has surpassed the promise of “do not touch express delivery, only do data”, because the boundaries of express delivery are now expanded.

On September 17, Ali logistics robot Xiaomanlu was released, becoming the first scene application robot on Ali’s robot platform, and the importance it attaches to express logistics is self-evident. This is the rookie’s “machine substitution” for the express logistics industry.

In addition, on September 20th, Cainiao Baotuo CEO Li Jianghua announced the “1234 strategy”, that is, in the next year, 100 cities will be delivered to the door on demand, 200,000 shipping points will cover the whole country, 30 cities will be online with environmentally friendly bags, service 400 million users.

According to the data in June, the number of users wrapped in rookies has exceeded 200 million, while this number was only 100 million a year ago. Behind the doubling in one year and the rapidly growing number of users, this is the unification of the rookie’s entrance to the scene of shipping.

For express companies, the situation is not optimistic.

For example, before the end user would think about it when sending a shipment, is it better to use Shentong or Zhongtong? At that time, when the rookie package unified the shipping portal, the express delivery company would completely lose the initiative of the receiving end. The price of losing the entry was that every courier company became a rookie package service provider. In the end, which courier company was User choices are like being turned over.

The express company must be very aware of this feeling of being choked by fate.

For a long time, the revenue of express delivery companies has relied heavily on e-commerce components. In the game with e-commerce platforms, this dependence makes express companies very passive.

It is the same logic now. In the business mailing system constructed by Cainiao, Cainiao still has not touched express delivery, but has become the entrance of express delivery.

It can be seen that the boundary of the concept of express delivery has been expanded, which also means that there is room for modification of the original rules.

In fact, the rookie has changed the rules of the league more than once. What I put on the bright side is the permanent free electronic receipt.

As an important bridge and tool for the connection between Cainiao and Tongda, Cainiao promised that the electronic form will be free forever, but in 2019, Cainiao’s upgraded one-in-one service will charge merchants a 1 cent technical service fee. .

There is a small game in the middle. The Tongda department can voluntarily choose to use a single or double order, but the cost of a double order is more expensive. Paying this cent to the rookie in the name of technical service fees can save a lot of money. cost.

Although it is only 1 cent, it is from 0 to 1. This also means that as a rookie referee, the rules of the league can be changed. This unequal status of the two parties has made the express company’s voice in the rookie alliance less and less.

End game

Just as it is difficult to judge the boundaries of the express delivery business at the moment, it is also difficult to judge the attributes of the rookie itself.

Although Cainiao has always claimed to only do data, with data as its center, Cainiao’s radiation radius is constantly expanding.

From the rookie wrapper, smart express cabinet, rookie station, and shipping cabinet on the user side, to the industrial park and rookie warehouse on the warehousing transit side; technical sorting robots and distribution robots; Danniao on the delivery side (later renamed Cainiao direct delivery) , Hummingbirds, stream birds.

Cainiao still does not have a courier, and still does not have a car, but just like the franchise outlets of a courier company, Cainiao has joined all the express elements and became the largest express company.

According to the development rhythm of Cainiao, when all aspects of express delivery are occupied by Cainiao, the express company will sooner or later become a logistics enterprise, only responsible for the transportation of branch lines.

In fact, this trend is becoming more and more obvious, and the degree of replacement of various links of express companies is also getting deeper and deeper.

At the Cainiao Logistics Conference in 2018, Cainiao President Wan Lin announced: In the next three years, Cainiao Wrap will provide new shipping services to more than 1 billion people per year with its partners. Cainiao Post will build 100,000 community-level sites. Cainiao IoT technology Jointly connect 100 million smart logistics terminals with the express industry.

Among them, there are 100,000 rookie stations. This data is very scary. Ordinary people may have no idea about the express outlets that used to be all over the city streets.

According to the financial report data of Sitong Yida, Tongda is a group of 5 express delivery companies with a total of 160,000 franchise outlets, of which 29,000 are Shentong, 32,000 are Yuantong, 30,000 are Zhongtong, and 42,000 are Best Huitong. The rhyme reaches 27,000.

The rookie’s ambition will be close to the sum of the four links and one reach in the future only in the data of the station.

Coupled with the serious desertification in the urban centers of the current franchise outlets, the post stations with comprehensive commercialization capabilities are more efficient than the individual outlets. In the future express delivery process, the post stations are likely to replace the outlets.

What are the advantages of post stations instead of outlets and fast-growing express companies relying on the franchise system? In addition, the logistics robot Xiaomanlu will be the first to be put into use on a large scale at Cainiao Station.

That is to say, although Cainiao once promised not to do express delivery, through the construction of a huge system, the express delivery company has been drawn from the bottom and replaced by the terminal.

Of course, the express delivery companies did not sit still. In the terminal stations and express cabinets, even though the rookie is cooperating with the express delivery companies, the Tongda Department has not given up on its own position.

In May, the price increase of express cabinets after SF Express’s acquisition of Easy Express became a big issue. When everyone thinks that a rookie is a gainer. In May of this year, Yunda launched its own smart express cabinet business-the honeypot smart cabinet.

Since the project was established in 2017, Yun will only start small-scale launches at the beginning of 2020. It can be seen from the time node that this is roughly in line with the SF rookie data dispute at the end of 2017 and the time node of Tongda’s withdrawal from Fengchao.

When Fengchao returned to SF Express, Yunda did not put all hopes on the “third-party” rookie smart cabinet again.

In fact, not only Yunda, but Shentong, YTO, and Zhongtong are all secretly laying out smart express cabinets.

Shentong’s smart express cabinet brand Miaogui began its layout in mid-2019. During the Fengchao storm in May this year, Miaogui began to be quietly launched;

Zhongtong’s smart express cabinet brand Tuxi was established at the end of 2018, and now it is also starting to attract investment and launch. Tuxi began to launch in Beijing in early June this year.

At the same time, Zhongtong Tuxi express supermarket of the same brand, which is similar to express station, is also joining in investment promotion.

It is also worth mentioning that Yuantong’s mother station, which was deployed long ago, now has 16,000 franchise stores, and Yuantong’s express cabinet brand Kangaroo express cabinets are also in the layout.

Some practitioners believe that Fengchao’s acquisition of Express Express accounts for nearly 70% of the market share, but this is not the end of the industry merger, but the beginning of a new round of competition.

Self-help

The current entanglement of the Tongda system is that the external competitor of Unigroup is still SF, but in the process of confronting SF, it is very likely that it will be defeated.

The most realistic problem facing Tongda express companies is that they cannot completely rely on the rookie alliance to fight SF Express, but also think about how to save themselves.

Ali’s continuous equity investment has made its relationship with Tongda more delicate.

From August to September each year, Ali’s layout in the logistics field begins to “prepare for the upcoming Double 11”. At the beginning of September, Ali acquired 12% of YTO’s shares at a price of 6.6 billion yuan. After the completion of the transaction, Ali and those acting in concert will hold 22.5% of YTO’s shares.

Can such deep binding really maximize the benefits? I’m afraid not necessarily. Just a year ago, in August 2019, when Alibaba became a shareholder of Shentong, which may lead to changes in Shentong’s actual controller, the stock price was not optimistic about the capital market and the stock price crashed.

On April 30, 2020, Alibaba’s first quarter 2020 financial report revealed that Alibaba held 2% of Yunda’s shares and became the latter’s seventh largest shareholder. At this point, Ali finally gathers all connections and one connection. The rookie seems to be leading the four connections and one connection, more like ruling the express arena.

Ali finally put Yunda into his subordinate symbolically, but Yunda is not so “loyal”.

According to media reports, in early June of this year, Yunda’s affiliates invested 58 million yuan to establish 5 e-commerce companies. They are: Wenzhou Yuntai Electronic Commerce Co., Ltd., Kunming Yunda Electronic Commerce Co., Ltd., Yongan Yunsong Electronic Commerce Co., Ltd., Yongan Yunji Electronic Commerce Co., Ltd., and Yongan Yunan Electronic Commerce Co., Ltd.

E-commerce has always been the dream of express companies. Because in the entire development process, e-commerce is the root of the rise of express delivery and the most important factor in the neck of card express companies.

SF Express is the most typical example.

For so many years, SF Express has tried to rely on its own express delivery advantages and tried multiple e-commerce projects such as Heike and Youyou, but they were unable to break through.

Even now, express delivery companies still have not given up their attempts on e-commerce. E-commerce attempts are being done by various companies, such as Yunda’s Youdiai, Yuantong’s e-city e-product, and Shentong’s Shenxian Life.

E-commerce can’t do it. In the business between e-commerce and express delivery, express companies are also trying-e-commerce warehouse.

Nowadays, the cloud warehouse business with integrated warehousing has become the standard configuration of various express companies. Judging from the revenue of the past two years, the cloud warehouse business for e-commerce companies has become the fastest growing segment of express companies.

E-commerce companies store goods in the express companies’ warehouses, and when there are orders, they will be shipped directly through each e-commerce warehouse. Compared with doing e-commerce platforms by themselves, this model has more logistics supply chain advantages for express companies.

The reliance on e-commerce orders and the fact that four links and one Dad have no right to speak have led to the only way out in the competition for express delivery.

The financial report data of various express companies in 2019 shows that revenue growth is much higher than profit growth. Taking Yunda as an example, revenue growth is 148%, and net profit growth is -1.88%. This is a sign of the tragic price war. Why is there a magical event of 80 cents sent across the country in Yiwu in 2019?

Establishing their own advantages on the delivery side, express companies can more balance their dependence on a certain e-commerce platform on e-commerce parts. On a larger scale, it is more like Jingdong’s Okura model, but lacks C-end traffic.

From another perspective, when rookies build their own + franchisees to establish e-commerce warehouses in various places, it is also the reason that express companies must follow up.

The construction of Cainiaodi.com has been connected to 353 warehouses in 21 provinces and 72 cities across the country through self-construction + cooperation, with a total construction area of ​​6.19 million square meters.

The current delivery method of e-commerce cloud warehouse has greatly changed the path of commodity circulation in the express industry. Many express parcels are no longer delivered point-to-point, but are shipped directly from warehouses everywhere. In addition, the desertification of urban centers in express delivery outlets has also given birth to many express companies that hire intra-city delivery companies from various warehouses to directly ship to various sites, and then deliver them directly to express electric vehicles.

In other words, the core assets of the former express companies such as outlets and transfer stations may be replaced in the future express chain.

Cainiao has undertaken the entire process of receiving and dispatching, and can still reach a promise not to touch express delivery, but the original express delivery has been replaced by new production factors.