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Zhang Wenhong: The birth of a vaccine does not mean that the new coronavirus can be completely solved



The 2020 Tencent Medical ME Conference (hereinafter referred to as the “ME Conference”) is officially launched. The world’s top medical leaders gather to start from the “pain points” and focus on cutting-edge medicine such as the new crown epidemic, heart disease, cancer, reproductive medicine, and depression, combined with Internet technology The insights into the pain points of users decode the cutting-edge thinking of life for the public.

Zhang Wenhong: The birth of a vaccine does not mean that the new coronavirus can be completely solved 1

This year, the ME Conference takes “pain points” as the theme, intends to explore the pain points and solutions of individuals, medicine, and society, reveal the reflection and evolution of life and civilization, and promote the popularization of medical science for all. Speakers at the ME conference include Academician Zhong Nanshan, Director of the National Respiratory Diseases Clinical Medicine Research Center, Eric Rubin, editor-in-chief of the New England Journal of Medicine, Academician Ge Junbo, Director of the Department of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, and Director of Shanghai Key Laboratory of Embryonic Diseases Academician Huang Hefeng, Academician Lu Lin, Director of the National Research Center for Mental and Mental Diseases, Professor Cai Sanjun, Director of Colorectal Surgery, Fudan University Tumor Hospital, Professor Peng Baogan, Director of Spine Surgery, Third Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital, and Zhang Zhang, Director of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University Professor Wen Hong, and Huang Lei, Vice President of Tencent Medical.

Professor Zhang Wenhong delivered a keynote speech entitled “Out of the Darkest Hour”. He mentioned that in this epidemic, the world has become a community to fight the epidemic. For the next step in epidemic prevention and control, when the world’s epidemic is not over, China Cannot be independent of the world. China’s experience is explored in the constant struggle against the virus, but successful solutions may not necessarily be replicated. There are many factors behind this. China has adopted a resolute strategy-to encircle and suppress the virus, it’s better than a virus. “Go faster” in order to win, sacrifice a little freedom of the individual in exchange for greater freedom of the whole society.

At the same time, the birth of the new crown vaccine that has attracted worldwide attention does not mean that the new crown virus can be completely solved. Professor Zhang Wenhong mentioned, “The next thing we need to do is to run faster than the virus, quickly control the place where the epidemic occurs and test the relevant contacts until every case is found. At the same time, we It is necessary to increase the vaccination rate to welcome the restart and opening of the world.”

The following is a record of Professor Zhang Wenhong’s speech:

Speech topic: Out of the darkest moment

Zhang Wenhong Director of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, Director of the Department of Internal Medicine, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University

Hello everyone, everyone, I am very glad to be here today to communicate with you about this epidemic, my current feelings, and some ideas or opinions about the future.

Everyone is discussing a topic and pain point. I believe that no one kind of pain will be better than this year’s new crown epidemic on a global scale. The whole world is suffering from the disaster caused by this epidemic. Taking a breath during the epidemic, the whole world is still in darkness.

Today we have been discussing when we will get out of this related disease caused by this bat-the new crown epidemic. Of course, we are still discussing whether it is a bat or not, but today we all know that this virus from nature has given us A challenge that brings mankind is completely beyond our imagination.

Looking back at the development trend of our epidemic since this epidemic, you will find that the cumulative number of deaths exceeds 1.09 million. I believe this data should be unimaginable in January this year.

Of course, China has kept its pace of control of the new crown epidemic at the level of more than 80,000 cases, and the trend of cases in the whole world today does not seem to stop, so how long will this darkness continue? We should discuss this from a scientific perspective.

Many people discussed in March of this year that if summer comes, the entire epidemic will be very similar to SARS in 2003. When summer comes, it will naturally go away. Today I believe that many people in the world will agree that this epidemic may continue to spread. Many people even think that this virus has become a resident virus in human society, and it may stay there and not go away. What is the real situation?

We have seen the epidemics in key countries in the world, and you will see that after the global epidemic started to slowly rise in January this year, the number of cases in many countries in the world has exceeded 8 million, 7 million. At 8 million, it is even going up. This is the cumulative number of patients in the top 8 countries in the world this year. This number exceeds our earliest prediction of this disease.

In fact, from March of this year, we can see that the epidemic became fully global in March. At this time, its trend is not a trend that SARS showed that it can stop in the summer, but there are more. There is a situation of global spread. This situation was only discovered during the pandemic. So before the arrival of summer this year, there are two kinds of thoughts that are arguing. One thought is that the epidemic caused by the coronavirus is in the summer. When the virus arrives, it may die slowly and will not cause further spread. However, another thought is that the coronavirus, but its characteristics have shown a spreading situation like influenza virus.

Today, we follow one of the countries with the most severe spread in the world, in India, let’s take a look at the characteristics of the new crown epidemic. This is a comprehensive analysis on the face of the Indian epidemic published on Science this year. What characteristics will you find in the spread of the new crown epidemic at this time? This group of mainly young people has caused the spread of the epidemic in this country. In other words, the widespread activities of young people in this country have contributed the most to the spread of the epidemic.

But more we see that in every age group, its transmission shows a horizontal transmission trend, that is, its epidemic performance among children aged 0 to 14 is that they are spreading to each other. We see elderly people over 65. Human-to-human epidemics are also spreading to each other. This is a typical feature of the pandemic after the global spread of the epidemic, that is to say, it spreads widely among people of all ages and close contacts. How will we stop in this case? This epidemic, this is what we are going to discuss today.

Today, I am here to show you several strategies for the global response to this epidemic.

The first strategy is obviously that everyone likes to listen to China’s experience. What is China’s experience? In fact, China’s experience did not become experience at the beginning. China’s experience was when our team opened to Wuhan. In fact, we don’t have a very complete final experience in our minds. These experiences are the constant struggle against the virus. Formed in it. This photo comes from the back of our teammates when they opened to Wuhan, but here we see many young doctors carrying backpacks and walking forward in a fearless attitude. We can see the younger generation of China. The doctor has demonstrated extraordinary spiritual power and his professional power.

And what kind of war is our war in Wuhan? We in China have implemented a 100% lockdown and blocked the entire city. We have also implemented a 100% closure of the city. In today’s China, we have adopted the spirit of 100% prevention and control of infectious diseases in response to the outbreak. After about two months, practice has proved that this set of methods is successful.

But successful experience does not mean that you can copy it, because there are many factors behind that make our Chinese experience successful in our land. There is government leadership, our Eastern culture, and the cooperation of our people. .

Today’s war epidemic has achieved an initial victory in China, and has achieved initial success, and it has come to an end, but many people have been asking, is there no new crown in China since then? Obviously not. In this global epidemic, we know that the world is an anti-epidemic community. When the world’s epidemic is not over, can China be independent of the world? Obviously not, so in China there will be some sporadic cases, imported cases, but we are very afraid of situations like Wuhan again, so the second experience of the Wuhan epidemic is that for a population There are a lot of medical resources and the per capita resources of medical resources are relatively poor. If the consequences of the spread of the epidemic are very serious, China must adopt a resolute strategy. This strategy is when you encircle and suppress the virus in an all-round way. After winning, one thing we will do next is that you have to run faster than the virus, so today we see in China when a virus outbreak occurs in any place, we will quickly deal with this place. Conduct centralized control, and at the same time carry out testing on the people it contacts, and even expand testing, large-scale testing, until every case is found, many people told me, he said that this measure is too strict, you Is the price paid too much? This requires us to know very clearly, if we do not do this, what will be the consequences? If you don’t run faster than the virus, the virus will spread. As soon as the virus spreads, we will ask ourselves whether we have enough medical resources to bring the epidemic under control again. Therefore, China’s experience is faster than the virus. You can control the epidemic within one month in Beijing.

Then in Xinjiang, you will find that the epidemic will be controlled within one month when the epidemic occurs, and the epidemic will be controlled within a month in Dalian. This situation will also occur in Chinese cities today, but we will talk to our people and people today. The masses communicated adequately, so many people asked me why the Chinese people cooperated so much during this epidemic. In fact, in China, our people have always been the main body of this epidemic, so today some people will What is the experience in China?

In China’s experience, the first point is of course the leadership of the government, which has formulated a series of strategies, but the government’s strategy is not enough. We should let the public know clearly why our strategy is like this, so in this process There are many professionals in China, and I am also among them. We will communicate with our people through various channels. Our self-media, our publications, and many of our official accounts have actually had a lot of communication with the public. This is our own team. The first international novel coronavirus disease published during the epidemic. It was born in the very early stage of the fight against the epidemic. It was widely published in April and May with zero international copyrights. The popular science books we wrote were published in 18 countries in the world. For publishing with zero royalties, we hope to tell the world about China’s experience and our experience in communication with the people. This means that an epidemic will be truly successful only when the whole society is united and everyone understands each other. Success, so the success of China’s fight against the epidemic depends on the first one is leadership, and the second one is our oriental culture. We can sacrifice some of our very short-lived freedom for a better life of the entire group.

That’s why the former WHO Secretary-General Margaret Chan once said that we must sacrifice a little bit of our own personal freedom to gain greater freedom for the entire society. I think this sentence is very good, and some of the cooperation of the Chinese people is here. We have fully seen this epidemic. Therefore, when an epidemic can be controlled, it should depend on many factors, and ultimately it can succeed.

Is it because other countries in the world have no unique secrets for epidemic control? In fact, today we see that the second wave of foreign cases that everyone is very worried about has indeed risen. We will see here that this is the data of France yesterday. We see that the second wave of new cases in France seems to exceed it. In the first wave, let’s look at the data from the United Kingdom. The second wave of new cases in the UK has exceeded the first wave, so many people will be very worried. If they exceed the first wave of this epidemic, do you have the ability to carry out A full control? In fact, here I still want to tell you that other countries in the world have also formed their own anti-epidemic strategies, especially countries like Europe. What are their main strategies? When the epidemic recurs and my medical resources cannot effectively cope with it, I will definitely step up my anti-epidemic strategy, such as closing schools, reducing going out, and working from home. There is a very important point among them. I have to ensure my own The beds in the ICU, that is, the beds in the intensive care unit, can be used to treat enough patients with multiple illnesses, so why vacate beds for them? Because the death rate of our disease is ultimately caused by whether critically ill patients receive effective care. Therefore, we all know the strategy adopted by China this time, why in China we must resolutely control the disease at an early stage. We just hope that the number of our severe cases will be completely within our control. Only then can you achieve the supremacy of the people. The concept of life supremacy, so it is at such a level abroad, after everything is placed there, you will find that it becomes strict when the epidemic situation arises. Recently, both France and the United Kingdom have once again extended their emergency response time and brought the epidemic under control. This is their first thought.

Second thought, when you see his recent increase in the number of cases, but his fatality rate, for example, the United Kingdom has now dropped to a level of about 0.5%, which means that these countries have been working on their own anti-epidemic strategies. It maintains a dynamic balance inside.

So when you can’t completely eradicate this virus, you have to learn how to live with this virus. In a sense, we think these two strategies are suitable for our country. China will eliminate the virus in the short term, and European countries cannot eliminate the virus in the short term. I have learned a strategy to coexist with the virus, but I must The fatality rate goes down, so what are everyone waiting for? Could the world never reopen like this?

Now we know that people can’t go abroad or it’s troublesome to go abroad, and it’s troublesome for people from abroad to come in. If the world keeps shutting down like this, our economy, politics, and culture will be greatly challenged. So what are you waiting for? Obviously all of us are waiting for this year’s weapon-vaccine. But everyone’s question is here again. Will there be no new coronaviruses in the world once the vaccine comes? So we know today that countless vaccines have been born in the world, measles vaccines have been born, measles still exists, chickenpox vaccines have been born, chickenpox is still there, we still have flu vaccines, do all the flu in the autumn and winter come every year? once? So the birth of the vaccine does not mean that we have completely solved this problem.

What is the role of the vaccine?

Today, with the birth of the vaccine, we will know that the world’s strategy for the control of the new crown epidemic will come up with a third strategy. This strategy means that before the vaccine is released this year, at this time, the vaccine has not been released, and even everyone Didn’t I get vaccinated when I went abroad? This is an emergency vaccination in the country. It is only administered to a very small number of people. Most people are not vaccinated. At this time, are we still in China? Our schools and hospitals , The community is still accepting some challenges? Yes, we are still accepting the challenge, because the world’s epidemic is not over, I hope everyone will always have this vigilant thought.

We are going out on the crowded subways and buses, in gathering theaters, like today, we also need to wear masks. We must wash our hands frequently when we return from outing, and try our best to ensure social distancing when the crowd gathers. China has entered a new normal. It has been several months. On October 1st of this year, China has been so far. Accepted a very powerful challenge. We call this challenge a “stress test”. The first very huge “stress test” after China withstood the new crown epidemic was this year’s National Day. China has as many as I know. Nearly 600 million people have traveled outside, near or far, but today the epidemic in China is still within a controllable range, and there have been some sporadic cases in very local areas of China, don’t you think very scary? In fact, no. For the sporadic cases that appeared today, we quoted our original strategy and adopted strong medical monitoring and testing methods. We ran ahead of the virus, and we can finally control the epidemic.

So after the vaccine came out, did our epidemic leave us? Is the virus gone? Actually not. When the vaccine comes in, it will not be 100% vaccinated internationally. In some countries, 30% will be vaccinated and some 40% will be vaccinated. What we have to do is even if 30% or 40% of people are vaccinated, the most dangerous group will get it. Protection, so the fatality rate of the entire social group will be greatly reduced. When the fatality rate of this society drops significantly, we begin to welcome the restart of the world, because whether it is flu or other diseases, when the fatality rate drops significantly At this time, the opportunity for the world to restart came. At this time, we have to face a restarted world again in China. We have kept China very clean during this epidemic. Our local cases are basically zero. We How will we face the challenge of restarting the world and the virus that still exists in the world?

Obviously, China has to rely on the universal vaccination of vaccines, and we still have to maintain an ultra-low level of local cases through a higher vaccination rate of vaccines to welcome the restart and opening of the world.

So this year’s new crown epidemic has come to today. We believe that we have passed the darkest time, and the dawn has appeared in the distance on the horizon, we will finally come out from the darkest hour, thank you everyone.