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Focus on Trump’s illness and stimulus bill, US stocks closed down, technology stocks led the decline



In the early morning of the 3rd Beijing time, US stocks closed down on Friday. The news of Trump’s diagnosis of new crown pneumonia has increased market uncertainty.The Speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi said the aviation industry assistance measures may come soon. The US House of Representatives adjourned and failed to pass the aviation industry rescue bill. Non-agricultural data in September showed slow employment growth and slower economic recovery.

Focus on Trump's illness and stimulus bill, US stocks closed down, technology stocks led the decline 1

Focus on Trump's illness and stimulus bill, US stocks closed down, technology stocks led the decline 2

Trump will open an office in a military hospital

The Dow fell 134.09 points, or 0.48%, to 27682.81 points; the Nasdaq fell 251.49 points, or 2.22%, to 11075.02 points; the S&P 500 index fell 32.36 points, or 0.96%, to 3,344.44 points.

Although U.S. stocks closed down on Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded gains this week. The Dow rose 1.9% a week, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5%.

The news that Trump tested positive for the coronavirus increased risk aversion in the market on Friday and risk assets were sold.

Analysts said that the news of Trump’s diagnosis has made market sentiment nervous, and U.S. stocks may therefore pull back 10%, and put pressure on peripheral markets such as Europe and Asia. However, it is too early to judge its impact on the outcome of the US election. The market’s instinctive reaction to the news is to sell, which is understandable.

In addition, the non-agricultural employment data released on Friday morning was worse than expected, indicating that due to the lack of vaccines and government assistance, many Americans and businesses are in a difficult situation and the pace of economic recovery has slowed.

The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi said on Friday that the Trumps had been diagnosed with COVID-19 and that they had changed the way to stimulate negotiations. She was optimistic about reaching an agreement. After Pelosi gave a speech, the Dow once turned up.

Trump suffers from new crown pneumonia, market risk aversion improves

U.S. President Trump announced on Twitter early on Friday morning local time that he and first lady Melania Trump (Melania Trump) both tested positive for the coronavirus and that they will immediately begin “quarantine and recovery.” process”. The White House has cancelled all public events previously scheduled by Trump, including a rally in Florida on Friday.

Hours after Trump announced that he and the first lady tested positive, White House officials stated that the Trumps were experiencing “mild symptoms.” The report said Trump was “in high spirits” and spoke with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on Friday morning.

Trump’s campaign team stated that all previously announced activities involving Trump will be moved to online or postponed.

The White House is discussing whether Trump will speak to the United States in some way about his diagnosis.

White House doctor Sean Conley said that Trump and the first lady are “in good condition now” and expect Trump to continue to perform presidential duties during treatment and recovery. On September 30 and October 1, Trump held fundraising activities and campaign rallies in Minnesota and New Jersey respectively.

The Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Biden announced that he will be tested for the new crown on Friday. Trump and Biden held the first presidential debate on the same stage in Cleveland, Ohio on September 29. At present, it is not yet confirmed whether the next two presidential debates will be held as scheduled. As previously planned, the two presidential debates will be held on October 15 and 22.

Experts say that Trump’s health has always been good, and the White House also has the world’s top medical team and equipment to help him through the health crisis. However, after all, Trump himself is 74 years old and obese, which means he It still belongs to the high-risk group.

Therefore, in the event of an unfortunate situation, for example, Trump needs to use ventilators and other facilities to help with treatment, and his actions and expression skills are impaired or his judgment ability is impaired, then the US administrative system needs to initiate the next emergency plan.

In the case that the president is unable to perform part or all of his duties, the third section of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution will be activated. At that time, the vice president will become the acting president when the president temporarily loses his capacity, until the president regains his sanity and orders the withdrawal that power.

And if President Trump’s health deteriorates severely, then Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution will be triggered, which will give the Vice President more extensive office powers until the President fully recovers his sanity or is judged by medical staff. In order to permanently incapacitate, the presidential transfer process was initiated.

Affected by news that Trump tested positive for the new crown, US stocks fell on Friday. Risk aversion has also expanded to other asset classes. Crude oil prices continued their sharp decline on Thursday and fell more than 4% in early trading on Friday. The prices of safe-haven assets have risen, and the yields of US Treasuries have fallen.

Institutional investors quickly poured into safe assets such as bonds, bond prices rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell to 0.6578%. Brent and WTI crude oil futures fell and quickly expanded the decline to 3%. The two major indexes of the Tokyo stock market in Japan also fell, and the decline in the FTSE China A50 Index futures quickly expanded to 2%.

Pelosi said he was optimistic about reaching an agreement

The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said on Friday that U.S. President Trump’s diagnosis of new coronary pneumonia may change the current form of stalemate negotiations on the stimulus agreement.

“This (Trump’s diagnosis of new crown pneumonia) may change the format of negotiations because here (Republicans) see the fact that we have been emphasizing. This is a ferocious virus,” Pelosi said, adding , She will pray for the president’s safety.

In the month-long tug of war, Pelosi repeatedly emphasized how much money should be injected into the anti-epidemic stimulus plan, and said that Republicans did not understand the severity of the epidemic. Pelosi said that although she and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (Steven Mnuchin) negotiated the aid agreement for the last time, the proposed price difference between the two sides was hundreds of billions of dollars, but she said she was “optimistic” about reaching an agreement.

She said: “We always have to find a way out. This is our responsibility. I believe we will. We will find a middle ground. We are the legislators. We will do our job well.”

Pelosi and Mnuchin talked over the phone on Thursday, but did not reach an agreement on the anti-epidemic assistance agreement legislation. Pelosi did not specify whether the talks with Mnuchin will continue on Friday.

The House of Representatives passed the $2.2 trillion proposal by the Democratic Party on Thursday night. The package plan proposed by Mnuchin earlier is $1.6 trillion.

Pelosi said on Friday that Democrats and Republicans “do not share common values” on how to contain the new crown virus and how to make legislation. Although the two sides are close to reaching an agreement on overall funding, check issuance, and small business assistance, there are still disagreements over the extent of relief sent to state and city governments and whether to protect businesses and schools from lawsuits.

The U.S. House of Representatives adjourned and did not accept the Democratic Party’s aviation industry rescue plan

The U.S. House of Representatives officially adjourned until Monday’s formal session. The House of Representatives did not accept the airline industry bailout package promoted by the Democratic Representative and Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Peter DeFazio.

DeFazio’s request to submit the plan to the House of Representatives for a vote was rejected because the plan was not approved by the leaders of both parties.

DeFazio accused Republicans in the House of Representatives of obstructing the plan. Earlier, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Pelosi, said that the industry rescue program was advancing and urged airlines to postpone layoff plans.

U.S. September non-agricultural employment data is worse than expected, indicating a slowdown in economic recovery

The September non-agricultural employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday showed that in the last month of the third quarter, U.S. employment growth was worse than market expectations, but the unemployment rate fell faster than market expectations.

This is the last non-agricultural employment report before the US presidential election in November.

The September non-agricultural employment report showed that the number of new non-agricultural employment in September was 661,000, which was an increase of 207,000 from the market’s expected 868,000 and less than half of the 1.371 million newly added in August. The unemployment rate in September was 7.9%, which was lower than the market expectation of 8.2%. After August, it fell again unexpectedly. In August, it dropped 8.4% from 10.2% in July.

The average hourly wage in September increased by 0.1% month-on-month, which was lower than the market’s expected growth rate of 0.2%, and increased by 0.4% in August; the average hourly wage in September increased by 4.7% year-on-year, which was also lower than the market’s expected growth rate of 4.8%. . The labor force participation rate in September was 61.4%, lower than market expectations of 62%, and in August it was 61.7%.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the improvement in the labor market reflects the continued recovery of economic activities suppressed by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the efforts made to control the epidemic.

In September, employment in leisure and hotels, retail trade, healthcare and social assistance, and professional and business services increased significantly. From March to August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish an estimate of the unemployment rate including misclassified workers. If calculated by the same method, the overall unemployment rate in September will be 0.4% higher than the reported rate. This is the largest error caused by data misclassification. (The error last month was 0.7 percentage points).

Analysts said that this non-agricultural data also revealed the apparent pressure, compared with the number of temporary layoffs or unpaid leave, the number of long-term unemployment is increasing. In addition, the number of people who have been unemployed for longer has also increased in the first few months; the data shows that the US economy has entered a critical stage, because a large amount of US government assistance has been lost, and the US election in November is approaching, and the epidemic continues. , Full of uncertainty.

The dismissal of temporary employees in the census may become a drag on non-agricultural data. Previously, the census employed a large number of temporary workers, which boosted the performance of non-agricultural data in August, but now it has become a drag; and subsequent data may be even more difficult. Oops, tens of thousands of airline staff will be forced to take vacations, retailers’ seasonal employment is below average, and outdoor dining becomes more difficult to sustain, leading to layoffs in restaurant staff and potential state and local government layoffs if the U.S. economy recovers Less than expected, then it may evolve into a larger-scale corporate bankruptcy. It is worth noting that the recovery of the US economy will largely depend on the development of the US epidemic situation.

Forexlive analyst Adam Button said that the U.S. unemployment rate fell below 8% is worth making headlines, but while the unemployment rate fell by 0.5%, the labor force participation rate also fell by 0.3%. The decline in the employment participation rate is not good for the economy, indicating some People are slipping into long-term unemployment or leaving the labor market.

Economists said that seeing more layoffs and bankruptcies from non-agricultural data will not be surprised that the employment situation has fallen again before the end of the year. Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, said: “The economic recovery continues, but the pace has slowed, partly because the government’s stimulus measures have weakened significantly. We are seeing more layoffs and bankruptcies. Until the next government receives more support, I will not be surprised that the employment situation drops again before the end of the year.”

Although the US non-agricultural employment data shows that the recovery momentum is still continuing, the government has lost 216,000 jobs, mainly related to the end of the census. Therefore, the unemployment rate further dropped by 0.5% to below 8%, a fifth consecutive month of decline. This means that before the general election, the trend of economic and employment improvement is still continuing, which is still more or less a support for market sentiment.

Other data show that the final value of the consumer confidence index rose to 80.4 in September, and the initial value was 78.9. Last month the index reported 74.1. The forecast of 51 respondents ranged from 74.8 to 80.2. The expectations index rose to 75.6 from 68.5 last month. The current economic conditions index rose to 87.8 from 82.9 last month. The median estimate of price changes in the next year fell to 2.6% from 3.1% last month.

The US Census Bureau announced that factory orders in July were revised upwards to an increase of 6.5% from the previous month. The forecast range of the 46 economists surveyed was flat to an increase of 4%. New orders excluding transportation goods rose 0.7% in August. New orders excluding defense supplies rose 0.8% in August and 5.8% in July.

New orders for capital goods, excluding aircraft and deducting defense supplies, increased by 1.9% in August and 2.6% in July. The three-month moving average of new orders for capital goods excluding aircraft and deducting defense supplies increased at an annual rate of 23.3% in August and 0.7% in July.

Focus stocks

Tesla announced on Friday that it produced 145,036 vehicles in the third quarter, delivered 139,300 vehicles, and delivered 90,650 vehicles in the previous quarter; in the third quarter, Model 3 and Model Y production was 128044 vehicles, and 124,100 vehicles were delivered; In the third quarter, the output of Model S and Model X was 16,992, and 15,200 were delivered. In addition, Tesla said that the inventory of new vehicles fell further in the third quarter.

American technology giant Amazon said on Thursday that more than 19,000 employees tested positive for the coronavirus. This is the first time the company has disclosed such detailed data. According to Amazon, from March 1 to September 19 this year, among approximately 1.37 million Amazon and its Whole Foods Market’s first-line employees in the United States, a total of 19,816 employees were tested and confirmed to be infected with the new crown, accounting for 1.44 %. The company also stated that thousands of new coronavirus tests are performed every day, and it is expected that by November, daily new coronavirus tests will increase to 50,000.

On Thursday, an investor bought a large number of call options on Netflix (503.06, -24.45, -4.63%) and Amazon and other technology stocks. Some analysts speculated that it might be Sun Zhengyi, who had a big bet on technology stock options in August. . According to data from Trade Alert, the investor spent a total of approximately US$180 million on these options, and the notional value of the option’s subject matter was approximately US$1.7 billion. In this regard, SoftBank declined to comment.

SensorTower preliminary estimates show that in the third quarter of this year, global consumer spending on mobile applications reached 29.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 32% year-on-year, of which Apple (113.02, -3.77, -3.23%) App Store was 19 billion US dollars; in Apple App installs on the App Store and Google Play climbed to 36.5 billion, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year, of which 8.2 billion were from the Apple App Store.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla wrote to all employees on Thursday local time that Pfizer “will never succumb to political pressure” when developing a vaccine for the new coronavirus. He wrote in the letter that the only pressure we feel, and also heavy pressure, is the billions of people, millions of companies and hundreds of government officials that depend on us.

US President Trump said in the presidential debate on Tuesday that he had talked with Pfizer that a new coronavirus vaccine will be fully available sooner than the federal health officials said next summer.

According to people familiar with the matter, General Motors (30.46, 0.08, 0.26%) is considering revising the terms of its deal with the troubled Nikola Motor Company, seeking to obtain more shares in the company because Nikola is being charged by a short-selling agency The stock price has fallen by more than half after the fraud. GM reached an agreement with Nikolai on September 8 to acquire 11% of Nikolai’s shares for US$2 billion.

Other markets

The three major European stock indexes closed mixed. The German DAX index fell 0.33%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.02%, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.39%.

Gold futures prices closed down on Friday. Gold market traders are still assessing the news that the Trumps have contracted COVID-19 and will be quarantined.

This unexpected news came at a time when the presidential campaign struggle between Trump and Biden was gradually heating up. Some strategists said that the news forced investors to consider the leading position of the Democratic candidate Biden, who is already ahead of Trump in most polls.

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said: “When the news of Trump’s diagnosis was first reported, the price of gold rose for a while, but then turned down, because the news clearly did not cause a panic selling in the stock market, and investors did not rush to turn. Safe-haven assets such as gold.”

The price of gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$8.70, or 0.5%, to close at US$1,907.60 per ounce.

December silver futures prices fell 23 cents, or 0.9%, to close at $24.029 per ounce.

This week, gold futures prices rose 2.2%, and silver futures rose nearly 4.1%.

Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Friday. U.S. President Trump’s announcement of the diagnosis of new crown pneumonia has aggravated traders’ concerns about a second wave of coronavirus outbreaks worldwide and severely hitting crude oil demand.

Analysts said that the news of the Trumps suffering from the new crown pneumonia has brought new uncertainty to the crude oil market, deepening the market’s concerns about the second wave of the outbreak, which may severely damage the economy and the prospects for crude oil demand; Trump; The long-term impact of the confirmed new coronary pneumonia on the energy market needs to be carefully studied.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.67 US dollars, or 4.3%, to close at 37.05 US dollars per barrel, the lowest closing price since September 8.

London Intercontinental Exchange (101.34, -0.09, -0.09%) Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell 1.66 US dollars, or 4.1%, to close at 39.27 US dollars per barrel, the lowest closing price since June 12.

According to the most active contract calculation, US WTI crude oil futures fell 8% this week, and Brent crude oil futures fell 7.4%.

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