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Tesla’s future is not as simple as you think



The long overdue battery day was not as enthusiastic as expected, so many people began to dig into the deep meaning behind it, but most of them were illogical. Two weeks after Battery Day, everyone has digested the technology and data at the press conference. The industry has also reached the following conclusion: What Tesla showed us is indeed what everyone expected, but it may be something you understand. In and out.

Tesla's future is not as simple as you think 1

This articleTotalIt is divided into three parts. The first part explains and discusses the long list of numbers that Musk throws at the meeting. The second part is how Tesla puts these numbers on the ground. The third part is based on these numbers. Pull future judgments.

Of course, this article is not about things that can be done overnight, but the time span is ten years. Ten years ago, we saw the real Tesla Roadster for the first time, and at the same time the prototype Model S also fell to the ground (although the mass production version released in 2012 is quite different). Compared with ten years ago, Tesla is now much larger and more mature, so we have reason to believe that they can come up with more amazing products ten years later.

The future of electric vehicles in Tesla’s eyes

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On Battery Day, Tesla showed the above chart, but don’t pass it by. It is important to the entire article. Judging from this graph, some people may mistakenly believe that Tesla will increase battery production capacity to 10 TWh in 2030. If this view is really good.In fact, the so-called 10 TWh is the amount of batteries consumed by our planet’s electrification every year, and it has to continue for 15 years.

In this picture, Tesla also found their own seats for Semi, Cybertruck, Model S, Model 3 and the new model that only sold for $25,000.In fact, this is Tesla’s division of different market segments and a forecast of the cost and sales volume of each segment.Of course, this is a forecast ten years from now, and everything is subject to change.

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Semi-trailer market

First, let’s talk about the semi-trailer truck market that Semi will attack.Given that the long-life version of the Tesla Semi will be equipped with a 1,000 kWh super battery, the upper limit of the model’s production capacity is 3 million units.Interestingly, according to market forecasts, global sales of semi-trailer trucks will reach 2.4 million units by 2024, so 3 million units in 2030 is a bit conservative. Of course, if a balance is made between long battery life and standard battery life, that is, each Semi is equipped with 750 kWh battery packs, its output can be raised to a higher level.

Luxury market

After talking about the semi-trailer market, let’s talk about the luxury market represented by Model S/X.Given that the Plaid version of Model S released on the battery day has increased the battery to 125 kWh, we have reason to believe that luxury cars will be equipped with 150 or even 200 kWh battery packs in 10 years. After all, luxury means presumptuous.

At present, the annual global sales of this market segment is hovering between 4-5 million units. In view of the continuous growth of ultra-luxury models and the gradual cheaper prices of medium-sized models, the production of 150-200 kWh battery packs for 4.5-6 million vehicles is enough to sell Up.

Pickup market

The pickup market is much more complicated to explain. Take Cybertruck as an example. Because of its stronger functional attributes, it has a battery life of 100 miles more than the lighter and more streamlined Model S (EPA has a battery life of 500+ miles). In other words, it is normal for Cybertruck to use a 200 kWh battery pack.

However, compared with traditional pickup trucks, the endurance of 500 miles is still too poor. After all, everyone with a fuel tank is at the level of 1,000+ miles.Therefore, from the perspective of ten years later, electric pickup trucks may generally be equipped with 350 kWh battery packs. Obviously, the battery allocated to the pickup truck market is enough to make 3 million vehicles, which is basically the same as the demand in the current pickup truck market. After all, industry experts predict that the pickup truck market may shrink in the next ten years.

Small Robotaxi?

Now it’s finally the hardest part to guess, but this question cannot be avoided. Why does it seem that the tall Robotaxi will be attributed to small, low-cost, iron-battery electric vehicles in the future? This question is difficult to explain, but obviously Tesla uses it as Robotaxi’s market strategy weapon.After all, judging from the existing ride-hailing market, cars are really not enough during peak periods.

For most commuters, the vehicle is just a means of transportation and does not need to be luxurious or spacious. To be honest, if it’s just for work, it’s enough for a family of four to open a public UP. Of course, there will certainly be other comfortable models in the Robotaxi market, but a small, cheap Tesla is definitely an artifact to expand the Robotaxi network. This is the best solution to the difficulty of taking a taxi during peak hours.

This means that the battery pack of this mysterious car of Tesla will not be too big, maybe only 50 kWh or even smaller. However, small batteries will not cause major trouble, let’s do the math:

Bigger:

· Small Robotaxi uses 75 kWh battery pack

·Model 3/Y compromise, use 85 kWh battery pack

Speaking smaller:

· Small Robotaxi reduces the battery pack to 40 kWh

·Model 3/Y only carries 75 kWh battery pack

Regardless of the setting, its annual output can reach 72-95.0 million units, and it can meet market demand even by 2030.

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Tesla’s role in the electrification transformation

In addition to the 10 Twh required for the transition to sustainable energy, Tesla also wants to increase battery production capacity to 30% of this number in 2030, or 3 TWh.

In a recent tweet, Iron Man also emphasized that he expects the company to achieve the goal of producing 20 million electric vehicles per year in 2030. With this information, we can make very specific calculations and draw relevant conclusions.The first and most important conclusion is that all the 3TWh batteries will not be used in electric vehicles, and some of them must be prepared for energy storage equipment.

With these conclusions, we can set a variety of scenarios for Tesla’s future. One thing is certain is that this 3 TWh battery will definitely not be evenly divided between electric vehicles and energy storage equipment, because 1.5 TWh can not produce 20 million electric vehicles. Even according to the current average battery capacity, 1.5 TWh can only make up to 16 million cars.

Therefore, it is possible to allocate 2.5 TWh to electric vehicles. In this case, the small car/Robotaxi can be equipped with 55 kWh batteries, while the Model 3/Y can use 85 kWh battery packs (on average), making 20 million cars no problem.

However, these two divisions are not practical, and 2 TWh for electric vehicles is still logical.However, the chart given by Tesla corresponds to the production of vehicles under 10 TWh. It is not obvious how to match different models under 3 TWh and how to achieve the goal of 20 million units. Therefore, we have to figure out how many cars Tesla can sell in different market segments.

On this issue, the easiest to figure out should be Cybertruck. On Battery Day, Musk answered a question. He stated that Cubertruck would be sold at least 250,000 to 300,000 units per year according to the predetermined amount, and possibly more.Obviously, Cubertruck sales will definitely go further in ten years, but it is still doubtful whether it can surpass the Chevrolet Silverado, the third-largest pickup truck sales in 2019 (576,000 units sold in 2019). After all, this is a market that relies on user brand loyalty to survive, and the shape of Cubertruck is too sci-fi.Therefore, this electric pickup truck should be able to surpass the annual sales of 400,000 units, allocated to 140 GWh of batteries.

Assuming that Semi also sells 400,000 units a year, then it will distribute 400 GWh of batteries.If 20 million cars are to be pooled under 2 TWh, the small car/Robotaxi will have to reduce the battery to 50 kWh, and the Model 3/Y can continue to retain 85 kWh battery packs.

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There is a plan for how to allocate 20 million units, but there is still a problem that needs attention, and that is Semi. As we all know, this is a big market that can eat 2 to 3 million units every year. As the main competitor in the field of electric self-driving trucks, it can be said that Tesla can sell one Semi if it builds it.

In such a seller’s market, will Tesla let go of this opportunity to increase the battery usage of passenger cars?

For example, set Semi battery to 750 kWh, Cybertruck 250 kWh, luxury car 150 kWh, Model 3/Y 62.5 kWh, and small car/Robotaxi only 40 kWh.In this way, the annual output of Semi can exceed 1 million units, and Tesla can continue to achieve the goal of 20 million units a year.

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Tesla’s future: literary edition

Assume that it is now 2030.

Cybertruck

In Tesla’s vision, Cybertruck will achieve great success and become the fourth best-selling product in the market (now ranked fourth Toyota Tacoma sold 249,000 units in 2019). Although he failed to slay the Ford Raptor, it was a great achievement for Musk.

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Semi

In Tesla’s vision, Semi can take a 17% share of the global semi-trailer market, and its annual output will reach 130% of the 2019 Model 3.If Musk’s wish can be realized, their market share is even 3% more than the truck industry leader Daimler. But there is still the problem. Tesla also wants to build more Semi, but the battery is not enough.

Luxury product line

In Tesla’s vision, they will take a quarter of the luxury car market by 2030, because they may become the only manufacturer with luxury self-driving electric vehicles.After the steering wheel is removed, Tesla’s large screen will even be further expanded to 24 inches to facilitate passenger entertainment.

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Robotaxi

In Tesla’s vision, the small Robotaxi is more suitable for people’s daily commuting.However, it is not easy to pass government review, so Musk’s Robotaxi network may not be completed until 2028.

In the next ten years, Tesla’s Robotaxi will probably be made more than the vehicles sold to consumers, and more and more people will re-examine whether they need to own a car.This year’s new crown epidemic has made many companies want to understand one thing, that is, working from home can save companies a lot of costs while ensuring efficiency.

For daily commuting, a backpack is the upper limit for carrying luggage, so Robotaxi does not need to be so big at all. Tesla may come up with a small car similar to the Volkswagen Up. Since there is no need for a spare tire and a front trunk, this small car still has enough space for 4 people, and it can even bring a family for a weekend big purchase.Don’t forget, online shopping is quite popular now, let alone ten years later.Of course, if you are willing to spend more money, it is not impossible to hit a bigger Robotaxi (anyway, Tesla models have self-driving hardware).

Model 3 与 Model Y

In Tesla’s vision, the Model 3 and Model Y product lines will still exist for a long time and continue to serve as the backbone of sales.The current long-life version is equipped with a 100 kWh battery, and its endurance has already exceeded the 100 kWh Model S 10 years ago. In short, the current standard battery life is equal to the long battery life, and the price drops again and again.In terms of appearance, Model 3 and Model Y probably won’t have major changes. The upgrade of manufacturing methods is the key.

Even if Tesla reaches the threshold of 20 million units a year in ten years, I am afraid it will not be able to rule the world. In this transition process, traditional manufacturers will definitely fall, but most of them will continue to exist in some form. In addition, a small number of electric vehicle start-ups will break a blood path, after all, they are now like Tesla ten years ago.

Of course, the sales of traditional fuel vehicles will not be completely suspended, but sales will definitely decrease significantly.

Finally, although other manufacturers may still be unable to surpass Tesla in electric technology, consumers will definitely have more and more choices.

to sum up

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If an average of 70 kWh of batteries is allocated to each electric passenger car, then the world has a battery capacity of 5 TWh, but in fact, I am afraid we will use 20 TWh or even 25 TWh of batteries every year.No matter how hard Tesla works, I am afraid that it can only eat 30% of the share, and the rest will depend on other automakers.

For Tesla, the annual output of 20 million units is really a lot. After all, the annual sales of Toyota and Volkswagen in 2019 were only 10 million units.Interestingly, Volkswagen is more ambitious than Tesla, and the German giant will achieve an annual output of 22 million units by 2030.You know, the Volkswagen brand’s 2025 sales target for electric vehicles is only 1 to 1.5 million units. As for Toyota, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, Ford and BMW, they still have no future sales targets.

Regarding Tesla’s future, we still have many questions to answer, but what is clear is that batteries will be more champions in the future than before.