Predict an electric dad battle royale

The blind and radical “curve overtaking” is being quietly pulled back to normal. “It is not recommended to establish a timetable for banning fuel vehicles, and it is not advisable to put forward a slogan of banning fuels in China.” “In the next 15 years, my country’s energy-efficient vehicles and new energy vehicles will develop simultaneously, each accounting for 50% by 2035.” ‘Hybridization’, replacing the’burning ban timetable’ with a’full electric drive plan’.”

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Author|Latma Island

Title Image | Stills from the movie “The Hunger Games”

These are not what I said. It was Wang Binggang, the leader of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Project Expert Group, who made a summary of the upcoming “Version 2.0 Technology Roadmap for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles” on September 16. Compared with version 1.0 four years ago, the focus of the new version of the roadmap is to replace “electricity” with “electric drive”. One word difference is a 90° major revision of the original new energy policy.

“Curve overtaking”, the words are still in my ears.

“Electric drive”, to put it bluntly, is to include “hybrid” instead of pursuing pure electric vehicles to fully “replace” fuel vehicles in seconds. The so-called “energy-saving vehicles” refer to low-fuel consumption fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles. This revision of the new roadmap,It indicates that the current subsidy support for new energy vehicles will be inclined to energy-saving vehicles and hybrid vehicles.After ten years of suffocation, the internal combustion engine can finally raise his head and breathe a sigh of relief. Regardless of how old your uncle is, he will still be your uncle in another ten years.

Version 2.0 of the roadmap will be a drastic change since the start of my country’s new energy strategy in 2009.

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(Picture: China Electric Vehicles Association of 100)

For the reasons, Wang Binggang further explained: “From the perspective of China’s current road environment, energy consumption structure, cost considerations, and the development of related industrial chains,The internal combustion engine still has a cost advantage, and petroleum energy should not be abandoned prematurely.By 2035, the ratio of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles should be roughly 50% each. “my country’s energy sector plans that coal will still account for more than half of my country’s power generation by 2035. “(Did it resolve a lot of popular online debates?)

Of course, it is not surprising that you will not hear even a little bit of news from the mouths of electric bloggers, big Vs, and so-called “tech” media on such a big issue in the new energy field. Although Musk on the other side of the ocean usually farts, they can simultaneously transfer to Weibo within 5 minutes. But this time at the door of Beijing, the official statement of the national new energy project leader, they could not hear. (I wanted to cut a few pictures and put them in. After thinking about it, don’t worry about anyone who is a business.)

Because we live in a magical era, a group of adults who grew up reading “Zou Ji’s Satire of Qi Wang’s Admonishment”,But I firmly believe that we can’t help if we don’t pull out the seedlings. Whoever stops me from pulling the seedlings just doesn’t want them to grow.It is the old reactionary forces that should be swept into the garbage dump of history.

Pure electricity is not so easy

In 2009, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly convened an energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and promotion pilot work meeting to deploy energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and promotion work. This meeting 11 years ago was the starting point for everything afterwards. Today, everything you see and hear about the Chinese electric car market on the road, in airport advertisements, in the media, in the media, in graphic videos, is detonated by this singularity.

Policy chicken blood, one dozen is eleven years. By 2019, the total number of new energy vehicles (pure electric + plug-in hybrid) sold in China has exceeded 1 million.

However, among these 1 million new energy vehicles, they are not restricted by policies but purchased voluntarily, and can be used as private vehicles. Guess how many?

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The official answer is-less than 200,000 vehicles, that is, less than 1/5 of the total.

Data from the National Information Center: In 2019, commercial vehicles and commercial passenger vehicles accounted for more than half of the 1 million new energy vehicle sales in 2019, and the number of passenger vehicles purchased by private individuals was 464,000.Among them, out of the 208,000 vehicles in cities with purchase restrictions, only 44,000 vehiclesIt is a voluntary purchase that is not affected by the policy; in non-restricted cities, the so-called A00-class new energy vehicles are mostly “accounting” or “old head music” characteristics. The remaining ones that have real value for private cars are added togetherAbout 150,000(The policy-affected part of the 48,000 A0-class vehicles has not yet been removed).

What is the total sales volume of my country’s narrow passenger car market in 2019? 20 million vehicles. New energy vehicles have been developed for 11 years, subsidized for 11 years, and supported for 11 years. In the end, they can really impress consumers without relying on policies and solely on strength.It’s still only from 0% to the poor 1%, less than

Believe it or not, here are the words in black and white.

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In fact, if you compare the new energy subsidies in 2020 with the decline again, 2019 is generally considered a “good situation”. From January to August 2020, the total sales of passenger cars in China decline 15.4% Under the background of the new energy vehicle sales 26.4%, Of which pure electric vehicles decreased year-on-year 27.8%(China Automobile Association data). The overall auto market is slowly falling, but it is already a fact that pure electric vehicles “lead the market”.

New energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, after more than ten years of subsidies and preferential treatment, still do not have the basic ability to escape strong support from policies and survive independently. This is probably a consensus. Whoever does not admit it can only say that it is not objective. Xu Changming, Deputy Director of the National Information Center:“New energy vehicles have so far been a policy-driven market.”(September 16, 2020.)

The internal combustion engine is still your uncle

The 1.0 version of the roadmap released in 2016 had too high expectations for new energy, especially pure electric vehicles; version 2.0, revised to both oil (including hybrid) and electric vehicles, until 2035 to evenly divide the world-and then, it will be everyone’s favorite. The long-awaited “Electric Vehicle Sweeping the Six Nations” program time (of course, the premise is to achieve the goal as scheduled by 2035).

In fact, the changes in the new roadmap are not sudden. At the beginning of this month, Geely Automobile’s sci-tech innovation board prospectus revealed a piece of the future automobile energy composition predicted by the National Information Center. The figure below,

ICE Represents a pure fuel vehicle (Internal Combustion Engine, without any hybrid);

BEV Represents pure electric vehicle (Battery Electric Vehicle, pure battery without internal combustion engine);

PHEV 、 HEV Represents plug-in hybrid and non-plug-in hybrid respectively;

REEV 、 FCV It is extended-range hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell (both are non-mainstream, basically negligible);

The second color block from the top, increasing from 7% to 57.4%.”48V“——Do you think it should be an electric camp with thick eyebrows and big eyes? Take clothes. 48V refers to the use of the current popular micro-hybrid technology, which belongs to the roots of the fuel vehicle, which is more “fuel” than HEV.

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(Picture: Geely Science and Technology Innovation Board Prospectus)

The National Information Center predicts that by 2029, the share of pure fuel vehicles without any hybrid system will drop to only 10% – but don’t worry. A full 57.4% share is actually taken up by the “new fuel vehicles” after 48V micro-hybridization, which is equivalent to left-handed over right-handed. In other words, even if we don’t count HEV and PHEV in the true sense of hybrid power, pure fuel vehicles and 48V fuel vehicles will still occupy more than 2/3 of the share by 2029!

If HEV and PHEV, which are relatively important fuel-powered hybrid types, are also included (REEV is mainly electric), the National Information Center predictsBy 2029, the “fuel vehicle camp” will still occupy 77.2% of the absolute mainstream market!As for pure electric vehicles, even in the future nine years later, they have just opened up about 20% of the market. According to this forecast, it will not be easy to achieve 50-60% of the hoped for version 2.0 of the roadmap in 2035.

You can of course argue that this is just a prediction, “the opening picture is all up to the compilation”, but please don’t forget: the official is the first driver to determine the development of electric vehicles and new energy, even if it is impossible to predict 100% The possibility of being accurate and optimistic must also be greater than the possibility of underestimating.

After confirming that “electric vehicles will completely replace fuel vehicles”, it is completely unrealistic in the short term. The so-called “traditional vehicles” use electric drive and hybrid to achieve energy saving and consumption reduction. The only way.

Efficient mixing: the silent majority

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In the face of the impetuous “everything every second of an electric vehicle”, few people care about how the internal combustion engine improves efficiency and how hybrid power works. I feel so touched about this: every time a new technology related to internal combustion engines is introduced, there will inevitably be too lazy to read below, so I just leave a comment “too strenuous than electric”-like electric cars, battery life and safe charging All problems such as attenuation have already been solved perfectly.

The difficulty of fuel vehicles to solve the problem of internal combustion engines, just as the difficulty of electric vehicles to solve the problem of batteries, each has its own difficulties, let alone who. Leaving aside the stubbornness of any one looking for the other alone, it is purely a hooliganism.

So in addition to pure electric vehicles, there are two ways to make energy-saving vehicles (fuel and hybrid) improve efficiency and reduce consumption:

Hard and rigid front: Improve the thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines and use higher efficiency to reduce fuel consumption;

Seek a shortcut: add electric drive to form a hybrid, and use electricity to make the internal combustion engine work in a high-efficiency range.

(Of course, many times the two roads go together.)

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(48V changes little to fuel vehicles)

48V micro-hybrid is the most convenient solution for pure fuel vehicles with the closest distance to hybrid. The so-called 48V is to add a set of 48V electrical system with higher voltage on the basis of 12V electrical system commonly used in fuel vehicles. The engine starter motor is started by BSG or ISG under 48V/generator/motor, and a 48V battery pack with larger capacity is added.

The original intention of 48V was to cope with the ever-increasing power demand of electrical equipment in future automobiles. However, due to the higher power of ISG/BSG, 48V also makes the cold start process of the vehicle faster and more stable, which makes the start-stop system that has been criticized for a long time more practical (indirect fuel saving); 48V can support electrification technology including electric turbines , Also has an indirect effect of improving efficiency and reducing consumption. If it is an ISG motor, the motor can also provide auxiliary torque when starting and shut down the engine when coasting, further helping to save energy. Some manufacturers believe that the 48V system can reduce the overall fuel consumption by about 0.4L/100km. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but don’t forget that a 48V fuel car is still a fuel car. The fuel consumption is originally saved by picking a little bit.

You can tentatively understand it as: on the premise of not redesigning and changing the basic structure of fuel vehicles, adding a set of small volume and weight (basically the same as fuel vehicles), of course, is also very limited (mainly increasing power supply, fuel saving is incidental ) “Hybrid System”. Therefore, some people call 48V “weak mixing” or “micro mixing”.

At present, for luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Jaguar, 48V technology is basically regarded as the standard equipment in the future, and it is gradually being popularized with the iteration of models. In China, Geely is also equipped with a 48V system with BSG motors as the core in some high-end models. Compared with real hybrids and more expensive plug-in hybrids, the 48V micro-hybrid will be placed in mainstream Volkswagen models, which will be a very fast and definite trend. Just like the National Information Center’s forecast for 2029, most of the “disappeared” fuel vehicles are actually “48V”.

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(Jaguar 48V micro-hybrid system)

Among the remaining two main hybrid vehicle categories, PHEV is largely a policy-driven product. At least 50km of pure electric battery life makes it necessary to carry a larger battery pack. The heavy body causes the embarrassment of “electricity is like a tiger but not electricity like a mouse”. In many cases, low fuel consumption is only averaged by pure electric mileage. . Even in restricted cities other than Beijing, plug-in hybrids enjoy the same new energy benefits as pure electric vehicles, and their market share is far from that of pure electric vehicles.

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(Plug-in hybrid is not perfect as expected)

HEV hybrids represented by Toyota and Honda may become direct beneficiaries of the version 2.0 roadmap. Compared with pure fuel vehicles and other types of hybrid vehicles, HEV has higher requirements for internal combustion engines and electric motors, and requires sophisticated power split devices and mature power split strategies. Coupled with the reliability challenges posed by complex systems, the HEV market is still dominated by the “two fields” that have been cultivated for a long time, and the threshold is even higher than that of pure electric vehicles.

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After the official announcement of the version 2.0 roadmap, the existing “plug-in hybrid + pure electricity” new energy subsidy support system will inevitably be adjusted according to the new route of “energy-saving vehicles + new energy”. The term “energy-saving cars” is no stranger to friends in Guangzhou.

Although it is also a city with limited traffic and purchase restrictions, Guangzhou has developed a separate “energy-saving vehicle” indicator in the indicators of fuel vehicles. Vehicles that enter the “Energy-saving Vehicles” catalog can be individually lottered, and the winning rate is much higher than that of ordinary fuel vehicles. The catalogue of energy-saving vehicles in Guangzhou currently basically belongs to domestic hybrid models of Toyota and Honda. Low-fuel consumption, hybrid vehicles are regarded as “energy-saving vehicles” in the standard sense, and license plate preferential policies such as separate quotas for lottery may be inspired by Guangzhou’s practice.

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In addition to license indicators, taxes and fees are also an important means of government intervention. We know that new energy vehicles are currently exempt from purchase tax and consumption tax (the latter is in-price tax). In fact, from 2015 to 2017, small-displacement vehicles below 1.6L enjoyed the preferential policy of halving the purchase tax. This may also become a possible reference for preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles after the release of the version 2.0 roadmap. Of course, due to the different times, it is no longer appropriate to divide it only by displacement, and it is more reasonable to divide it by comprehensive fuel consumption.

New energy rolls in, battle royale is imminent

When a market no longer has increments delivered to hand, stock fighting will become more cruel. We said earlier that from January to August 2020, the total sales of electric vehicles decreased by 27.8%. However, during the same period, Tesla Model 3 sold 67,000 units. On the single-model sales list of new energy vehicles, Model 3 sold more than the second and third places combined. In those cities where purchases are not restricted, Model 3 almost firmly occupies the top of the sales list, that is, it has an absolute advantage in voluntary purchases that are not affected by policies.

2020 is the first year of domestic delivery of Model 3, and in 2021, domestic Model Y will arrive.

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(“Tesla shock wave has been generated”)

People once regarded the domestic Tesla as a catfish, but this catfish came when the water level stopped rising. Some big fish calmly dealt with it temporarily, and even occasionally took advantage of it; while the small fish and shrimps who had no power to parry had only their lives driven out of the field.

So this time, after Wang Binggang finished “the simultaneous development of energy-efficient vehicles and new energy vehicles”, he emphasized that the goal of pure electric vehicles as the general direction of the future remains unchanged. This implies that under the guidance of the version 2.0 roadmap, while opening the door to energy-saving vehicles, it will not close the door to new energy, especially pure electric vehicles.

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But this is not enough to form good news. First of all, the new energy market as a whole must break through and reverse under the slow downturn of the auto market, and then domestically-made electric vehicles cannot let domestically-made Tesla “take away” these “fruits”. It is not optimistic whether this “electric vehicle market other than Tesla” can grow. And even if the 2.0 version of the roadmap does not change the subsidy for new energy vehicles, the competitiveness of new energy vehicles has actually been weakened in comparison with the new preferential treatment of energy-saving vehicles-there are so many consumers, buying energy-efficient vehicles One more, and one less purchase of new energy.

In fact, in places with lower visibility, the “New Energy Battle Royale” has already been staged.

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Edge manufacturers such as Yundu, Zhidou, Xinte, Jiangling New Energy have almost disappeared, and BAIC New Energy’s sales in the first half of the year plummeted by 77%. Data from the National Information Center supports this trend: Since 2018, the proportion of B-class vehicles in the sales of new energy vehicles has gradually increased, while the proportion of A-class and A0-class vehicles has been squeezed. Although the proportion of cheaper A00-class cars has not changed, we know that major manufacturers such as Wuling and Euler are entering this market in large numbers, and their sales are of course derived from the cheap and inferior “accounting artifacts” that were previously entrenched here. “Men.

In addition to Tesla should be able to take care of itself, the living environment of “extraordinary” electric car brands will only become an increasingly red sea.

Electricity is destined to be the future, but you and I live in the present

I have written a lot of articles about electric vehicles, and I firmly believe that electric vehicles are the future. The two are just not contradictory. Who wants to say what “electric black” I am, I would be willing to throw my Model 3 driving license off his face. I have talked about so many electric cars, but I have never denied that “electric cars are an inevitable trend in the future.” The 2.0 version of the new roadmap is essentially to amend (postpone) the expected time for the arrival of full electrification, rather than denying that electrification is the future. So as mentioned earlier, the new version of the roadmap is a 90° correction, not a 180° U-turn.

We firmly support the development of electric vehicles, but at the same time, we are more firmly opposed to pushing electric vehicles.

The question is, it is true that electric vehicles are the future trend, but how long is the “future”? 1 year is the future, 5 years is the future, 10 years is the future, and 100 years is the future. And are you and I the protagonist of Nolan who travels through time and space at will? No, you live in the present, not in the future. Human life span is limited, and the “future” of 1 year is very different from the “future” of 10 years.In the future, humans will migrate to Mars sooner or later, so are you going to shoot everyone up now?

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In fact, when you are really familiar with the development of internal combustion engines in recent decades, you will understand that electric is not for environmental protection, but the natural evolution of the development of automobile power.

“Electricity is not for environmental protection.” To be more precise, it is actually because cars have never been separated from environmental protection regardless of their power. Naturally, there is no such thing as “oil-to-electricity is for environmental protection”.The power system of a modern car isAbsolute power, energy consumption and emissions, daily driving, cost and reliabilityThe balance product. Each round of power system evolution is based on the shackles of the latter two, trying to improve the first two.

Around the 1980s and 1990s, naturally aspirated engines had matured. After the application of various variable valve technologies, if you want to continue to increase the power, it is nothing more than increasing the displacement and increasing the speed: increasing the displacement is not conducive to environmental protection, and increasing the speed impairs daily driving. So small-displacement turbocharging began to emerge.

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Turbocharging is not a new thing, but the shortcomings of reliability and daily driving have made it difficult to popularize in mainstream family cars. Until the development of electronic technology makes direct injection in the cylinder practical, the cooling effect of direct injection can suppress knocking. At the same time, various methods to reduce turbo lag have appeared, coupled with the environmental protection emission regulations have begun to take effect, which has prompted small-displacement turbines to enter the homes of ordinary people. At the beginning of the 21st century, a batch of new small-displacement turbines, almost all direct injection + turbine formula.

With the arrival of the turbo era, increasing the turbo can easily increase power. However, with the application of various methods to suppress hysteresis, increasing the size of the turbine will definitely impair daily driving. On the other hand, environmental protection and emission reduction standards are accelerating the tightening! Further quantification of small emissions can barely meet the carbon dioxide emission standards, but higher exhaust temperatures have nowhere to hide nitrogen oxides. Under the siege of increasing power, reducing emissions, not impairing daily driving, and ensuring cost reliability, the car is forced to two paths: one is to seek ideal combustion, and the other is to find “electricity” as a foreign aid.

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Ideal combustion tries to maximize the potential of the internal combustion engine, but it also saw its head. The inherent principle of the internal combustion engine determines that its thermal efficiency limit is 50% to 60%-there is still a long way to go, but the end is visible. Nissan’s variable compression ratio technology, Mazda’s compression-ignition gasoline engine, many promising pre-combustion chambers, and Subaru’s lean combustion are all moving towards the goal of the ultimate internal combustion engine.

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(Right: Hybrid, the electric motor reduces the internal combustion engine running in the inefficient range)

The road of “electricity” is much easier. Even if the electric drive is not introduced, just adding an electric turbine to the turbine can well solve the old problem of turbo lag-daily driving. Not to mention hybrid and pure electric. The energy conversion method of the electric motor determines its much higher efficiency and the same much higher power density, as well as the dynamic characteristics of the peak torque of 0 speed, and a wider range of constant power speed… The only tricky thing is energy storage System: battery.

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(The operating characteristics of the motor have many natural advantages that the internal combustion engine can’t match)

We are now in an era when both roads can still be taken. So we see that some people choose not to hesitate and seek the answer to the ultimate internal combustion engine, even if the space is inevitably smaller as they go; some people choose to suffer first and explore the new era that has not yet arrived, even if they do not know how many years of hunger.

There are also people who go right and left, invest in the research and development of internal combustion engines but don’t take the horns, invest in the research and development of electric vehicles but are not in a hurry to pay back-in fact, most manufacturers we see are like this. For large car companies, at this moment, all-in is always the last choice. Only small factories (like Mazda) and new factories (like Tesla) can bet on the first or the second.

If we define the “future” when fuel/hybrid and electric vehicles each account for 50%, we will see a collection: advanced internal combustion engines that are getting closer to the extreme, and advanced electric vehicles that are getting closer and closer to the ideal. The former uses continuously approaching the energy consumption level of electric vehicles to fully maintain its own historical stage area; the latter uses continuously approaching the practicality of fuel vehicles and strives to seize time in the hands of the future.

Until one day, electric vehicles solve all problems, or make all problems no longer important, and cars enter the electric age. This must be a process, and it is the objective laws and objective facts that determine this process, not people’s cheeks and enjoyment-people always yearn for change, eager for rapid, intense, upturning, and overthrowing changes. But conversely, extinguishing the virtual fire makes the road more tortuous, but the future is bright after all. The adult world is never black or white, A or B, or light or dark.

Before you really understand a thing you thought you knew well, don’t easily deny it just because of some falsehood. Negation is easy, and it is easier to follow the trend of denial.